Tuesday, April 08, 2003

A sabermetric approach to suckitude?

Last weekend, while I was prepping for the ICT, Yahoo added a bunch of players to its database for the 2003 baseball season, thus sparking the Great Waiver Derby. To give you an idea of the players involved, we were talking about players like Rick Helling, Darren Oliver, Esteban Loaiza, Steve Parris, Casey Blake, and Jeremy Bonderman. My two targets in the waiver derby were Rocco Baldelli, (filling a percieved need at OF), and the pitcher that I really coveted, due to the fact that he was listed as the 3 in the Devil Rays rotation, Jim Parque. Parque was a no brainer, but Baldelli I was worried about. Just after picking him up, I noticed that he was hitting over .300, with a .770 OPS. So I was very hesitant to put him in the lineup today. Then I ran some numbers based on the suck league's scoring system.** Of my outfield options, Baldelli became the best option I had (having scored 100 points this season), despite the high average. Reason: far more K's than anyone else. In fact, of all my players, only Josh Bard had scored more points (104) So, okay, Rocco's off the bench. I then took a look at all my players and tried to figure out if there was a simply computable stat that I could use to predict a good bet to fail. The one stat I've worked out is Points/PA. I'm going to see if it's roughly predictable of performance. If I extend out the idea of perfect suckitude (every at bat a K) versus perfect antisuckitude (every bat a HR, giving a run a hit, and and RBI), we get a range of 12 to -34. At this point on my team:
Josh Bard (6.5) I suspect this is an absolutely insane number, but I feel good about having him now.
Rey Sanchez (4.08)
Omar Infante (3.88)
Fernando Tatis (3.44)
Rondell White (3.17)
Rocco Baldelli (2.77) Wow, hitting over .300, and still worth an average 2.77 points to me every PA, wow.
and on the downside
Mo Vaughn (-0.15)
Corey Patterson, the vengeful (-1.57)
Jeff Liefer (-3.25) Uh, oh...

I then ran 5 quick tests
Randall Simon (-3.57) That won't last.
Jack Wilson (4.1) That might last.
Mike Cameron (0.08) Since Cameron is the walking fantasy baseball conundrum, it's worth tracking him.
Reggie Sanders (-5.89) That's one freaky week.
Barry Bonds (-2.44)

Yes, I know it's very early, but I'll have to revisit this.


** AB (+4), R(-6), H(-8), 2B(-6), 3B(-12), HR(-18), RBI(-6), SB(-6), CS(-12), BB(-6), K(8), E(10)

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