How it's going to end.

Having studied the map, I've got it down to three possibilities:
1. Bush rollover (Winning 300+ electoral votes.)
2. Narrow Bush win (Under 300 electoral votes.)
3. Narrow Kerry win

The reason I discount the possibility of a Kerry rollover is that he hasn't nailed down a lot of the places he needs to do that. Minnesota's still in play, Hawaii's inexplicably in play a little, and New Jersey still hasn't moved into a solid blue state. Above all, the indicator for me of this was West Virginia. I've yet to see a chart in this cycle that has tipped WV even to a tie. That's truly mind boggling to me, that a historically Democrat state flipped in 2000 and hasn't even been touched. Those conditions lead to the possible Bush rollover scenario, which isn't so much a rollover, but a parlay bet. The key pieces to this are taking all the battlegrounds by a point or so, and tipping some place like NJ or HI the same way.
My gut keeps telling me that option 2 is the right one. It hinges on OH and FL to Bush, PA going to Kerry, and the rocky mountain swings going Bush. My basis for those are seeing Youngstown's power structure go hard for Bush (Democrat mayor, and paper both endorsed him, call it the ghost of Traficant), and seeing there's enough muddying of the water around here, on both sides, that neither side has looked good in the local media to force a hard swing to Bush. That doesn't stop the Republicans from coming here (Cheney came to Washington County last Wed. Bush comes tomorrow), but I think I figured out why: I-70. It wouldn't surprise me that a lot of the highly conservative Catholic Democrats in southern Ohio have been encouraged to come for rallies here. The support in these parts for Bush is remarkably strong, given voting record, but I don't know if the base is narrow and motivated or wide and shallow.

So I guess the best guess you'll have is if the following are true at 8pm EST.
Scenario 1: PA/NJ/NH all go Bush. I don't see this happening at all.
Scenario 2: NJ goes Kerry, NH Bush, PA doesn't get called immediately. Pennsylvania, I think, is the Democratic firebreak (I'm still trying to figure out the equivalent for Republicans, I suspect it's Florida, but I had suspected it's Ohio before.) If it's close here, it's going to be close all night nationally, and afterward. Pennsylvania is my bet for 2004's Florida. If it shines some sunshine on this state, it's going to be embarrassing, but ultimately good for us.
Scenario 3: PA/NJ/NH all go Kerry. I figure this is going to happen, I just don't think it will happen immediately. If if does happen immediately, start figuring that Kerry needs, and will get, one of OH, FL, or the MN/WI/IA triple.